FC St. Pauli 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli at Millerntor-Stadion this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Braunschweig's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.80 for Eintracht Braunschweig. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 56% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 53% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.144 / defence 0.837 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.795 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.384. Data: 55 FC St. Pauli games / 55 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 58% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 19%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Braunschweig 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 70% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 58% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.81 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.144 / def 0.837 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.795 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 58% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.14) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.80x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.38
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.73
0.92
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
3%
32.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.92 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 19D 9L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.07 PPG from 55 outings (16W 11D 28L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 14W 12D 1L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.67 points per game from 27 outings (4W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.15 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 27W 19D 9L in their last 55 games (1.82 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.00 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.67 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 52%, Eintracht Braunschweig 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC St. Pauli) and 63% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC St. Pauli's games and 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 63% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.92 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 0.84 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 58% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 19%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 53%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.