FC Schalke 04 1-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as FC Schalke 04 welcome SV Wehen to Arena AufSchalke. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Schalke 04 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena AufSchalke, FC Schalke 04 have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Wehen have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Schalke 04 at 1.30 PPG versus SV Wehen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, SV Wehen 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Schalke 04 trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SV Wehen trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 61% and SV Wehen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 70% | SV Wehen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.51 xG and SV Wehen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.923 / defence 1.092 | SV Wehen attack 0.863 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.374. Data: 21 FC Schalke 04 games / 21 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 42% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | SV Wehen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Schalke 04 at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 50% | SV Wehen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena AufSchalke • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 42% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.51 / SV Wehen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 0.923 / def 1.092 | SV Wehen attack 0.863 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SV Wehen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Arena AufSchalke.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
FC Schalke 04 1 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Arena AufSchalke.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 42% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 1 | SV Wehen 0W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. SV Wehen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (0.92) and SV Wehen's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
42%
2.37
25%
3.97
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.29
SV Wehen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.29 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, FC Schalke 04 have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 3D 13L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Wehen's form line: 9W 6D 8L from 23 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Schalke 04 on 1.04 PPG, SV Wehen on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — FC Schalke 04 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Wehen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.35 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SV Wehen in 61%.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 7W 3D 13L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SV Wehen away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.55 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when FC Schalke 04 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 54%, SV Wehen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (FC Schalke 04) and 46% (SV Wehen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 54% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 46% of SV Wehen's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SV Wehen tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out SV Wehen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SV Wehen 1-0 at Arena AufSchalke, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.51 xG and SV Wehen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Wehen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against SV Wehen attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 42% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 33%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 70%, SV Wehen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Wehen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.04 PPG, SV Wehen 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.