FC St. Pauli 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host 1. FC Nürnberg at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC St. Pauli's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
FC St. Pauli hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for 1. FC Nürnberg, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with FC St. Pauli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC St. Pauli and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 58% and 1. FC Nürnberg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 51% | 1. FC Nürnberg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.794 / defence 0.944 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.144 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.158. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 FC St. Pauli games / 43 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC St. Pauli dominate the H2H record, yet 1. FC Nürnberg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.18 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.794 / def 0.944 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.144 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.25
1. FC Nürnberg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 34% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (6 meetings): FC St. Pauli 5W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.79) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.47
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.43
1.25
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.25 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 8W 14D 21L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 17W 13D 13L from 43 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Nürnberg are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC St. Pauli.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 8D 8L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.58 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg in 63%.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 17W 13D 13L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.14 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
1
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 7 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC St. Pauli at 62%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC St. Pauli) and 52% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC St. Pauli's games and 76% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat FC St. Pauli 1-3 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.18 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 51%, 1. FC Nürnberg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.