1. FC Nürnberg 2-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Nürnberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 3–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 62% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.02 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.913 / defence 0.926 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.120 / defence 1.524. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.281. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.524 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 1. FC Nürnberg games / 48 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.00. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.02 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.913 / def 0.926 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.120 / def 1.524 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 54% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 3W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.91) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
54%
1.87
21%
4.66
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.35
1.33
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
3%
30.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.33 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 19W 9D 20L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 14W 10D 24L from 48 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.38 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 4D 14L from 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.35 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 19W 9D 20L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.54 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
1. FC Nürnberg
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 9 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 62% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 29% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 2-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.02 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.12 / defence 1.52, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.