1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees FC Schalke 04 travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 4W 1D 5L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Schalke 04 are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, FC Schalke 04 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 58% and FC Schalke 04 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 61% | FC Schalke 04 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG and FC Schalke 04 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.114 / defence 1.335 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.197 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.444. Data: 33 1. FC Nürnberg games / 33 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 19% | Draw 24% | FC Schalke 04 57%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | FC Schalke 04 1.75. The model has a clear lean to FC Schalke 04 (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Schalke 04 at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 80% | FC Schalke 04 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 19% | Draw 24% | FC Schalke 04 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 / FC Schalke 04 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.114 / def 1.335 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.197 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
2.31
FC Schalke 04 xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 19% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.11) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
19%
5.25
24%
4.15
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.64
2.31
FC Schalke 04 xG
5.25
19%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
10%
10.03
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
2%
52.73
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 2.31 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 33 games, going 14W 9D 10L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.88 PPG from 33 outings (19W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.55 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 8W 3D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 1.88 points per game from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 2.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 in 67%.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 games (1.55 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 19W 5D 9L in their last 33 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
FC Schalke 04's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.69 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.88 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
6
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 56%, FC Schalke 04 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 56% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Schalke 04 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 56% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG and FC Schalke 04 2.31 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.33 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 19% | Draw 24% | FC Schalke 04 57%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 61%, FC Schalke 04 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.55 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.