Saint Etienne 4-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Rodez meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rodez have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: L D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Saint Etienne, 1.30 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Rodez in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 2 for Rodez and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 57% and Rodez 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 57% | Rodez 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.30 xG and Rodez 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.872 / defence 1.150 | Rodez attack 1.094 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.167. Data: 1 Saint Etienne games / 35 Rodez games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 27% | Rodez 40%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 90% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 27% | Rodez 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.30 / Rodez 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.872 / def 1.150 | Rodez attack 1.094 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Rodez (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Rodez xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rodez kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Saint Etienne 4 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rodez part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 33% chance of winning, Rodez a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Record (5 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 2 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.09x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
33%
3.08
27%
3.64
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.77
1.47
Rodez xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.47 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 7D 20L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez's form line: 9W 13D 13L from 35 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.14 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 3W 7D 7L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.60 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 8W 7D 20L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Rodez have gone 9W 13D 13L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rodez away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.24 PPG; Rodez away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 59%, Rodez 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Saint Etienne) and 65% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Saint Etienne's games and 65% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Saint Etienne's matches and 65% of Rodez's.
Do Saint Etienne and Rodez tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rodez in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Rodez 4-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.30 xG and Rodez 1.47 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 27% | Rodez 40%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Rodez 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.89 PPG, Rodez 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.