Reims 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Reims welcome Guingamp to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Reims) versus 1.40 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 53% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 47% | Guingamp 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.872 / defence 1.150 | Guingamp attack 1.099 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.189. Data: 1 Reims games / 35 Guingamp games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reims 30% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 41%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 30% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Reims 1.26 / Guingamp 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.872 / def 1.150 | Guingamp attack 1.099 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Guingamp xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Guingamp kick off?
Reims vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Guingamp?
Reims 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Reims vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Guingamp part of?
Reims vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 30% chance of winning, Guingamp a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Reims and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Guingamp in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.87x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.48
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Reims xG
Total xG
2.77
1.50
Guingamp xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.86
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Reims and 1.50 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims's recent record stands at 8W 11D 17L from 36 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 17W 5D 14L across 36 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guingamp by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reims have managed 4W 4D 9L from 17 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 7W 1D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.67 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 17W 5D 14L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 0.94 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Reims or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Guingamp in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Guingamp runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Guingamp?
From 3 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Guingamp have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Reims 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Guingamp?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 59%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Reims) and 59% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Reims's games and 59% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Reims's recent games and 59% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Guingamp tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.50 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reims 30% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 41%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 47%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.