Quevilly 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Robert Diochon to face Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stade Robert Diochon — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAU have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAU are 1.10 PPG clear of Quevilly in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAU in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Quevilly 3W, PAU 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 4–3 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 47% versus PAU 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 45% | PAU 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.18 xG and PAU 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.784 / defence 1.228 | PAU attack 1.251 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAU have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Quevilly games / 47 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 29% | Draw 25% | PAU 45%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 2.22. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Quevilly dominate the H2H record, yet PAU are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | PAU 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 29% | Draw 25% | PAU 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Quevilly 1.18 / PAU 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.784 / def 1.228 | PAU attack 1.251 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: PAU (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.53
PAU xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs PAU kick off?
Quevilly vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs PAU?
Quevilly 2 - 2 PAU.
Where is Quevilly vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs PAU part of?
Quevilly vs PAU is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 29% chance of winning, PAU a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Quevilly and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): Quevilly 3W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Quevilly and PAU in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. PAU (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.78) and PAU's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.25x) against Quevilly's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
29%
3.40
25%
3.95
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.71
1.53
PAU xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.71
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.53 for PAU, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 13W 16D 18L from 47 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 18L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Quevilly against 1.30 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 6W 10D 7L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.15 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and PAU in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while PAU have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or PAU away?
Quevilly's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.22 PPG; PAU away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Quevilly or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, PAU in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when PAU 0-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and PAU?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 61%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Quevilly) and 39% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 30% of games; PAU in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Quevilly's games and 52% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Quevilly's recent games and 39% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and PAU tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAU in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 10, as Quevilly and PAU drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.18 xG and PAU 1.53 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.78 / defence 1.23 against PAU attack 1.25 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 29% | Draw 25% | PAU 45%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 45%, PAU 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.17 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.