PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Nouste Camp this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 0.60 PPG clear of PAU in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: PAU 1W, Saint Etienne 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–6 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 55% versus Saint Etienne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Saint Etienne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.132 / defence 1.361 | Saint Etienne attack 0.896 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.151. Data: 58 PAU games / 24 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 70% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG PAU 1.36 / Saint Etienne 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.132 / def 1.361 | Saint Etienne attack 0.896 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Saint Etienne xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Saint Etienne kick off?
PAU vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
PAU 0 - 3 Saint Etienne.
Where is PAU vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Saint Etienne part of?
PAU vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 35% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both PAU and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Record (5 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 3W.
What form are PAU and Saint Etienne in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.13x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.90x) against PAU's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.57
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
PAU xG
Total xG
2.76
1.40
Saint Etienne xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for PAU and 1.40 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU's recent record stands at 19W 19D 20L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 27L across 58 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for PAU against 1.26 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAU have managed 12W 8D 9L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 8W 5D 16L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 19D 20L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 21W 10D 27L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Saint Etienne away?
PAU's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.52 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 6-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 55% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 55% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat PAU 0-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.40 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.13 / defence 1.36 against Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.