PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
PAU (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 0.60 PPG clear of PAU over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for PAU, 3 for Saint Etienne and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2025, ended PAU 0–6 Saint Etienne — a Saint Etienne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 55% versus Saint Etienne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Saint Etienne 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAU surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Saint Etienne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.132 / defence 1.361 | Saint Etienne attack 0.896 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.151. PAU's defence rating of 1.361 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 58 games and Saint Etienne's last 24.
Result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 70% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG PAU 1.36 / Saint Etienne 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.132 / def 1.361 | Saint Etienne attack 0.896 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Saint Etienne xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does PAU vs Saint Etienne kick off?
PAU vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
PAU 0 - 3 Saint Etienne.
Where is PAU vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Saint Etienne part of?
PAU vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 35% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both PAU and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.13x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.90x) against PAU's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 58 games and Saint Etienne's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.57
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
PAU xG
Total xG
2.76
1.40
Saint Etienne xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for PAU and 1.40 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU's recent record stands at 19W 19D 20L from 58 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 27L across 58 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for PAU against 1.26 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAU have managed 12W 8D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 8W 5D 16L across their last 29 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 19W 19D 20L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 21W 10D 27L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Saint Etienne away?
PAU's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.52 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between PAU and Saint Etienne, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 6-0 PAU on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAU and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 55% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 55% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of PAU's recent matches and 76% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat PAU 0-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.40 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.13 / defence 1.36 against Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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