PAU 0-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stade Nouste Camp — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for PAU, 1.00 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PAU register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Quevilly in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PAU, 3 for Quevilly and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Quevilly — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Quevilly 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 45% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.92 xG and Quevilly 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.171 / defence 1.234 | Quevilly attack 1.389 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Quevilly have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 PAU games / 62 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 21% | Quevilly 39%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Quevilly 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAU 70% | Quevilly 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 21% | Quevilly 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG PAU 1.92 / Quevilly 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.171 / def 1.234 | Quevilly attack 1.389 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Quevilly xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Quevilly kick off?
PAU vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Quevilly?
PAU 0 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is PAU vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Quevilly part of?
PAU vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 40% chance of winning, Quevilly a 39% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both PAU and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Quevilly?
Record (5 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 3W.
What form are PAU and Quevilly in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAU's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (1.39x) against PAU's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
40%
2.50
21%
4.70
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
PAU xG
Total xG
3.81
1.89
Quevilly xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for PAU and 1.89 for Quevilly, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, PAU have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 21D 21L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 16W 23D 23L from 62 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for PAU against 1.15 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (11W 11D 9L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 8W 10D 13L from 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.27 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Quevilly in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 21D 21L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 16W 23D 23L in their last 62 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Quevilly away?
PAU's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.42 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Quevilly have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when PAU 0-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Quevilly 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 48% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 32%; PAU have failed to score in 29% of games; Quevilly in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 45% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 48% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Quevilly tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat PAU 0-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.92 xG and Quevilly 1.89 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.17 / defence 1.23 against Quevilly attack 1.39 / defence 1.32, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 40% | Draw 21% | Quevilly 39%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Quevilly win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 45%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Quevilly 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.