PAU 1-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (PAU) versus 1.40 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for PAU, 4 for Guingamp and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 58% versus Guingamp 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 54% | Guingamp 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.42 xG and Guingamp 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.869 / defence 1.078 | Guingamp attack 1.153 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.102. Data: 71 PAU games / 71 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Guingamp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG PAU 1.42 / Guingamp 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.869 / def 1.078 | Guingamp attack 1.153 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: PAU (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Guingamp xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Guingamp?
PAU 1 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
Record (7 meetings): PAU 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are PAU and Guingamp in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
38%
2.61
25%
3.94
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
PAU xG
Total xG
2.79
1.37
Guingamp xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for PAU and 1.37 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, PAU have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 24D 24L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 29W 16D 26L from 71 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.31 PPG, Guingamp on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (15W 11D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 15W 6D 14L from 35 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 23W 24D 24L in their last 71 games (1.31 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 29W 16D 26L in their last 71 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
PAU's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.60 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.46 PPG.
Have PAU or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Guingamp in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 49%, Guingamp 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PAU) and 49% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Guingamp in 37%; Guingamp in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of PAU's recent matches and 49% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PAU's recent games and 49% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Guingamp tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat PAU 1-3 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.42 xG and Guingamp 1.37 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 54%, Guingamp 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.