PAU 3-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAU at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Nouste Camp this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nouste Camp. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for PAU against 1.30 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: PAU 0W, Clermont Foot 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 50% versus Clermont Foot 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 48% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.36 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.956 / defence 0.889 | Clermont Foot attack 0.880 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.252. Data: 42 PAU games / 42 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 3.70. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAU 30% | Clermont Foot 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG PAU 1.36 / Clermont Foot 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.956 / def 0.889 | Clermont Foot attack 0.880 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: PAU (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Clermont Foot kick off?
PAU vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Clermont Foot?
PAU 3 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is PAU vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Clermont Foot part of?
PAU vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 46% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAU and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are PAU and Clermont Foot in?
PAU (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAU's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.88x) against PAU's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.65
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
PAU xG
Total xG
2.34
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
7%
14.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for PAU and 0.98 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 14D 13L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (9W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for PAU against 1.00 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAU's home form reads 11W 5D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.93 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 15W 14D 13L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Clermont Foot away?
PAU's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.81 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAU or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PAU
2
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Clermont Foot?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 33%, Clermont Foot 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (PAU) and 48% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAU's recent matches and 48% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PAU's recent games and 48% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Clermont Foot attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 48%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.