PAU 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's home record at Stade Nouste Camp: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAU, 1.70 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 61% versus Bastia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 59% | Bastia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.35 xG and Bastia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.996 / defence 0.773 | Bastia attack 0.964 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.140. PAU's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 PAU games / 46 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 24%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 4.17. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 40% | Bastia 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG PAU 1.35 / Bastia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.996 / def 0.773 | Bastia attack 0.964 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Bastia xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 18:30 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Bastia a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
Record (6 meetings): PAU 2W | Draws 1 | Bastia 3W.
What form are PAU and Bastia in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Bastia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about PAU vs Bastia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.00x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.96x) against PAU's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.58
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
PAU xG
Total xG
2.20
0.85
Bastia xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for PAU and 0.85 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 14D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (17W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for PAU against 1.39 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 17W 14D 15L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Bastia have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bastia away?
PAU's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.64 PPG; Bastia away: 1.18 PPG.
Have PAU or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (PAU) and 41% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bastia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of PAU's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Bastia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 8, as PAU and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.35 xG and Bastia 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Bastia attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 24%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 59%, Bastia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.41 PPG, Bastia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.