Paris FC 0-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Saint Etienne travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris FC — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Charléty this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Paris FC at 1.50 PPG versus Saint Etienne's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Paris FC, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 48% versus Saint Etienne 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 45% | Saint Etienne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.03 xG and Saint Etienne 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.071 / defence 1.037 | Saint Etienne attack 0.990 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.100. Data: 64 Paris FC games / 64 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 33% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 38%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Saint Etienne 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 60% | Saint Etienne 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 33% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Paris FC 1.03 / Saint Etienne 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.071 / def 1.037 | Saint Etienne attack 0.990 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Saint Etienne xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Paris FC vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Saint Etienne?
Paris FC 0 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Paris FC vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Saint Etienne part of?
Paris FC vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 33% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Paris FC and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Saint Etienne in?
Paris FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.07) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
33%
3.04
30%
3.39
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.16
1.13
Saint Etienne xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.13 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC's recent record stands at 24W 18D 22L from 64 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 21L across 64 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.41 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 12W 6D 13L from 31 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 11W 9D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.47 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 24W 18D 22L in their last 64 games (1.41 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 27W 16D 21L in their last 64 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Saint Etienne away?
Paris FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Saint Etienne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris FC's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Paris FC
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Paris FC 0-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Saint Etienne?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 45%, Saint Etienne 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Paris FC) and 55% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Paris FC's recent matches and 61% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Paris FC's recent games and 55% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Paris FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 27, as Paris FC and Saint Etienne drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.03 xG and Saint Etienne 1.13 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Paris FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Saint Etienne attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 33% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 38%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 45%, Saint Etienne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.41 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.