Dunkerque 2-2 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Concarneau at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Concarneau meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dunkerque (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season.
Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dunkerque have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Concarneau in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Concarneau and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 3–4 with Concarneau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Concarneau — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 38% versus Concarneau 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Concarneau 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.84 xG and Concarneau 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.778 / defence 1.262 | Concarneau attack 0.897 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Dunkerque games / 26 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 45%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Concarneau 2.22. Concarneau hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Concarneau as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Concarneau if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 30% | Concarneau 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Dunkerque 0.84 / Concarneau 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.778 / def 1.262 | Concarneau attack 0.897 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Concarneau xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Concarneau kick off?
Dunkerque vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Concarneau?
Dunkerque 2 - 2 Concarneau.
Where is Dunkerque vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Concarneau part of?
Dunkerque vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 25% chance of winning, Concarneau a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dunkerque and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Concarneau 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Concarneau in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Concarneau (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.78) and Concarneau's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.90x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
25%
4.04
30%
3.33
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.07
1.24
Concarneau xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 15.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.24 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 6D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Concarneau's form line: 9W 5D 12L from 26 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.23 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (3W 2D 8L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 5W 2D 6L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Concarneau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Concarneau away?
Concarneau's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.85 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Concarneau in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dunkerque
1
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 0, Concarneau have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Dunkerque 2-2 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Concarneau?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Dunkerque) and 15% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Dunkerque and 31% for Concarneau.
On the defensive side: Concarneau in 38%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 54% of games; Concarneau in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 15% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dunkerque's recent games and 31% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Concarneau tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque and Concarneau share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 27, as Dunkerque and Concarneau drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.84 xG and Concarneau 1.24 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Concarneau attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 25% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 45%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Concarneau 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Concarneau's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.15 PPG, Concarneau 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.