Nimes 1-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nimes face Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nimes welcome Saint Etienne to Stade des Antonins in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Monday 20 February 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nimes stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Nimes have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Saint Etienne have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Saint Etienne's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Nimes) versus 1.30 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Nimes have won 0, Saint Etienne 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2022, ended Nimes 1–1 Saint Etienne — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 52% versus Saint Etienne 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 51% | Saint Etienne 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nimes surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Saint Etienne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.43 xG and Saint Etienne 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.982 / defence 1.316 | Saint Etienne attack 0.925 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.005. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nimes's projected output up. Nimes's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from Nimes's last 61 games and Saint Etienne's last 23.
Result probabilities: Nimes 41% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 31%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.46 | Draw 3.51 | Saint Etienne 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nimes 30% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade des Antonins • Kick-off: Monday 20 February 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 41% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Nimes 1.43 / Saint Etienne 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.982 / def 1.316 | Saint Etienne attack 0.925 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Nimes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nimes vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Nimes vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Nimes vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 20 February 2023 at Stade des Antonins.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Saint Etienne?
Nimes 1 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Nimes vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Antonins.
What competition is Nimes vs Saint Etienne part of?
Nimes vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 41% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nimes and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nimes vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nimes's attack at 0.98x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nimes's last 61 games and Saint Etienne's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.51
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.66
1.22
Saint Etienne xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nimes vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nimes and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Nimes and 1.22 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nimes's recent record stands at 20W 12D 29L from 61 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 30L across 61 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.18 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 11W 5D 14L from their last 30 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 5W 8D 17L across their last 30 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nimes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nimes are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.21 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 64%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nimes (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nimes
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Nimes vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Nimes and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 20W 12D 29L in their last 61 games (1.18 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 14W 17D 30L in their last 61 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Saint Etienne away?
Nimes's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.27 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 20 February 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nimes
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Nimes vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Saint Etienne?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Nimes have won 0, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nimes and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2023: Nimes 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 50%, Saint Etienne 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nimes) and 53% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nimes vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nimes and Saint Etienne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nimes's games and 63% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nimes and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nimes's recent games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Nimes's recent matches and 80% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Nimes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Nimes 1-2 at Stade des Antonins, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.43 xG and Saint Etienne 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.98 / defence 1.32 against Saint Etienne attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 41% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 31%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 51%, Saint Etienne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.18 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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