Quevilly 0-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Quevilly (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Diochon, Quevilly have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sochaux have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Quevilly, 1.60 for Sochaux — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sochaux in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Quevilly 0W, Sochaux 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 41% versus Sochaux 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 41% | Sochaux 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.61 xG and Sochaux 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.292 / defence 0.939 | Sochaux attack 1.169 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Quevilly carry an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Quevilly games / 61 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 27%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Sochaux 3.70. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 70% | Sochaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Quevilly 1.61 / Sochaux 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.292 / def 0.939 | Sochaux attack 1.169 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sochaux xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Sochaux kick off?
Quevilly vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Quevilly vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Sochaux part of?
Quevilly vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 47% chance of winning, Sochaux a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Quevilly and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Sochaux?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 2 | Sochaux 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Sochaux in?
Quevilly (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.17x) against Quevilly's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.82
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.76
1.15
Sochaux xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
5%
18.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.15 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 21W 17D 25L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sochaux's form line: 32W 16D 15L from 63 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Quevilly.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (11W 11D 9L).
On the road, Sochaux have gone 14W 7D 10L from 31 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Quevilly are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.37 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Sochaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 32W 16D 15L in their last 63 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.42 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sochaux in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
3
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Sochaux have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Quevilly 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 52%, Sochaux 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Quevilly) and 52% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 36%; Quevilly have failed to score in 32% of games; Sochaux in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Quevilly's recent matches and 52% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Quevilly's recent games and 52% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Sochaux tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Sochaux finished level at 0-0 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.61 xG and Sochaux 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sochaux landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.29 / defence 0.94 against Sochaux attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 27%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 41%, Sochaux 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.