Nancy 0-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nancy and RED Star FC 93 meet at Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Nancy against 1.40 for RED Star FC 93. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Nancy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
RED Star FC 93 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 40% versus RED Star FC 93 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 60% | RED Star FC 93 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.91 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.938 / defence 1.151 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.426 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.061. RED Star FC 93's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.426 — the away xG of 1.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Nancy games / 39 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 19% | Draw 24% | RED Star FC 93 57%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 5.26 | Draw 4.17 | RED Star FC 93 1.75. The model has a clear lean to RED Star FC 93 (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 40% | RED Star FC 93 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 19% | Draw 24% | RED Star FC 93 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Nancy 0.91 / RED Star FC 93 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.938 / def 1.151 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.426 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.74
RED Star FC 93 xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs RED Star FC 93?
Nancy 0 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 19% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nancy and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and RED Star FC 93 in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nancy's attack at 0.94x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (1.43x) against Nancy's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
19%
5.14
24%
4.25
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.65
1.74
RED Star FC 93 xG
5.14
19%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
3%
29.37
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Nancy and 1.74 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Nancy have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 2W 2D 1L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Nancy against 2.00 for RED Star FC 93. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nancy are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; RED Star FC 93 in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Nancy or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
0
Draws
2
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and RED Star FC 93?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-1 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 40%, RED Star FC 93 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Nancy and 60% for RED Star FC 93. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nancy keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 60%; Nancy have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nancy's recent matches and 40% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Nancy's matches and 60% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Nancy and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Nancy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Nancy 0-1 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.91 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.74 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nancy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.43 / defence 0.78, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 19% | Draw 24% | RED Star FC 93 57%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 60%, RED Star FC 93 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 1.60 PPG, RED Star FC 93 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.