Guingamp 2-2 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.90 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Grenoble's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Grenoble and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Grenoble 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 47% | Grenoble 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.02 xG and Grenoble 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.147 / defence 0.787 | Grenoble attack 0.860 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Grenoble's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Guingamp's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Guingamp games / 47 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Grenoble 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Grenoble's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.70 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Grenoble 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Guingamp 1.02 / Grenoble 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.147 / def 0.787 | Grenoble attack 0.860 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Grenoble xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Grenoble.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Grenoble a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 2 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Grenoble (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.15) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
43%
2.33
33%
3.00
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.70
0.68
Grenoble xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 12.4 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.68 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 19W 12D 16L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 19W 13D 15L from 47 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.47 PPG, Grenoble on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.89 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 26%.
Defensively: Grenoble in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 12D 16L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 19W 13D 15L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.39 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Grenoble in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Guingamp 44% BTTS, Grenoble 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 30% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Grenoble in 44%; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; Grenoble in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 17% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 30% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Grenoble share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 10, as Guingamp and Grenoble drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.02 xG and Grenoble 0.68 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Grenoble attack 0.86 / defence 0.72, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 43% | Draw 33% | Grenoble 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 47%, Grenoble 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.47 PPG, Grenoble 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.