Guingamp 3-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Clermont Foot's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Clermont Foot trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 42% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Clermont Foot 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.078 / defence 1.016 | Clermont Foot attack 0.779 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Guingamp games / 25 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 59% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 18%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 59% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.75 / Clermont Foot 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.078 / def 1.016 | Clermont Foot attack 0.779 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Clermont Foot xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot part of?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 59% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.28
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.58
0.84
Clermont Foot xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
32.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.84 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 23W 14D 22L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 11W 17D 31L from 59 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 6W 6D 17L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.80 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 23W 14D 22L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 11W 17D 31L in their last 59 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Clermont Foot away?
Guingamp's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.34 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Clermont Foot runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 38%, Clermont Foot 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Guingamp) and 52% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 34% of games; Clermont Foot in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Guingamp's recent matches and 41% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Guingamp's matches and 52% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Guingamp and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 0.84 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.31, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 59% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 18%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Clermont Foot 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.