Guingamp 0-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Bordeaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Guingamp against 1.70 for Bordeaux. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Guingamp 1W, Bordeaux 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Bordeaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Bordeaux 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.54 xG and Bordeaux 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.237 / defence 0.842 | Bordeaux attack 0.875 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Data: 45 Guingamp games / 43 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 18%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Bordeaux 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Bordeaux 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Guingamp 1.54 / Bordeaux 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.237 / def 0.842 | Bordeaux attack 0.875 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bordeaux xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bordeaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Guingamp vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bordeaux part of?
Guingamp vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Bordeaux in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.24) and Bordeaux's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.88x) against Guingamp's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.69
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.31
0.77
Bordeaux xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.77 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 16W 11D 16L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bordeaux's form line: 23W 10D 10L from 43 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's season.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.35 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.33 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, Bordeaux 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 43% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 33%; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Bordeaux in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Guingamp's recent matches and 38% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 8, as Guingamp and Bordeaux drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.54 xG and Bordeaux 0.77 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against Bordeaux attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 18%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.