Guingamp 0-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Bordeaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Bordeaux in Ligue 2 (matchday 8). Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Guingamp at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bordeaux's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Guingamp against 1.70 for Bordeaux. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Bordeaux and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2023, ended Guingamp 0–1 Bordeaux — a Bordeaux win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Bordeaux 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.54 xG and Bordeaux 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.237 / defence 0.842 | Bordeaux attack 0.875 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Data: built from Guingamp's last 45 games and Bordeaux's last 43.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 18%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.82 | Draw 3.69 | Bordeaux 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Bordeaux's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 40% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Guingamp 1.54 / Bordeaux 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.237 / def 0.842 | Bordeaux attack 0.875 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bordeaux xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Bordeaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Bordeaux kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Guingamp vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bordeaux part of?
Guingamp vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Guingamp and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Guingamp vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.24) and Bordeaux's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.88x) against Guingamp's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 45 games and Bordeaux's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.69
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.31
0.77
Bordeaux xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.77 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bordeaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 16W 11D 16L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bordeaux's form line: 23W 10D 10L from 43 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 21 home games (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 8W 6D 7L from their last 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Guingamp are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.35 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
Guingamp (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
❓ Guingamp vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.33 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Guingamp and Bordeaux, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, Bordeaux 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 43% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 33%; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Bordeaux in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Guingamp's recent matches and 38% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Guingamp's recent matches and 71% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 8, as Guingamp and Bordeaux drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.54 xG and Bordeaux 0.77 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against Bordeaux attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 18%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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