Guingamp 2-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Guingamp welcome Bastia to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.40 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Bastia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 44% versus Bastia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 54% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.58 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.107 / defence 1.021 | Bastia attack 0.779 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.082. Data: 70 Guingamp games / 70 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 25% | Bastia 20%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bastia 5.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Bastia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 25% | Bastia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Guingamp 1.58 / Bastia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.107 / def 1.021 | Bastia attack 0.779 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bastia kick off?
Guingamp vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Guingamp vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bastia part of?
Guingamp vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 54% chance of winning, Bastia a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Guingamp and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
Record (7 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 3 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bastia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.96
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.44
0.86
Bastia xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
23.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.86 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 29W 15D 26L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 24W 23D 23L from 70 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.46 PPG, Bastia on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.46 PPG from 35 outings (14W 9D 12L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 8W 11D 16L from 35 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.19 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 29W 15D 26L in their last 70 games (1.46 PPG), while Bastia have gone 24W 23D 23L in their last 70 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bastia away?
Guingamp's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.46 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
4
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Bastia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 40%, Bastia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Guingamp) and 34% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 31% of games; Bastia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 46% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Guingamp's recent games and 34% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bastia tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bastia in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Bastia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 33, as Guingamp and Bastia drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.58 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 54% | Draw 25% | Bastia 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 54%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Bastia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.