Dunkerque 3-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Dunkerque welcome Amiens to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Dunkerque) versus 1.60 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dunkerque, 2 for Amiens and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Dunkerque winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 47% versus Amiens 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 45% | Amiens 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.66 xG and Amiens 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.084 / defence 0.973 | Amiens attack 1.075 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.123. Data: 49 Dunkerque games / 49 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 49% | Draw 24% | Amiens 27%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Amiens 3.70. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 50% | Amiens 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 49% | Draw 24% | Amiens 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Dunkerque 1.66 / Amiens 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.084 / def 0.973 | Amiens attack 1.075 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Amiens xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Amiens kick off?
Dunkerque vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 November 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Dunkerque 3 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Dunkerque vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Amiens part of?
Dunkerque vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 49% chance of winning, Amiens a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dunkerque and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Amiens?
Record (4 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Amiens in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (1.08) and Amiens's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.11
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.83
1.17
Amiens xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
19.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.17 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 18W 11D 20L from 49 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 13L across 49 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 1.33 PPG, Amiens on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 9W 3D 12L from 24 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 8W 7D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Amiens in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 18D 13L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.25 PPG; Amiens away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Amiens in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dunkerque have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Dunkerque
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Amiens?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 38%, Amiens 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dunkerque) and 38% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 33%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 42% of games; Amiens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 38% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dunkerque's recent games and 38% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Amiens tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amiens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Amiens 3-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.66 xG and Amiens 1.17 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Amiens attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 49% | Draw 24% | Amiens 27%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 45%, Amiens 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.33 PPG, Amiens 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.