Dijon vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dijon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 29 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dijon have posted 2W 0D 2L at — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Dijon against 1.00 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dijon register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Clermont Foot in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dijon 0W, Clermont Foot 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dijon — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 89% and Clermont Foot 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 56% | Clermont Foot 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 2.00 xG and Clermont Foot 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.224 / defence 1.351 | Clermont Foot attack 1.093 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Dijon games / 43 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 39%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Clermont Foot 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Dijon 2.00 / Clermont Foot 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.224 / def 1.351 | Clermont Foot attack 1.093 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Dijon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Clermont Foot xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Dijon vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 29 January 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Clermont Foot part of?
Dijon vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Dijon and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Dijon and Clermont Foot in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dijon's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.09x) against Dijon's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
40%
2.52
22%
4.63
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Dijon xG
Total xG
3.98
1.98
Clermont Foot xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.98
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
6%
18.14
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Dijon and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Dijon and 1.98 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 0W 7D 2L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dijon are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; Clermont Foot in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 0W 7D 2L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Clermont Foot away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Dijon or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Dijon
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Clermont Foot?
From 1 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Dijon, 100% for Clermont Foot — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dijon and 50% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 100% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dijon's matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Dijon and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.