Concarneau 2-4 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Concarneau at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Concarneau host Angers at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Concarneau's home record at Stade Francis-Le Blé: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Angers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Concarneau at 1.10 PPG versus Angers's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Concarneau, 1 for Angers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Concarneau trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Angers trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 38% versus Angers 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 45% | Angers 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.34 xG and Angers 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.987 / defence 1.491 | Angers attack 0.787 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Data: 29 Concarneau games / 29 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 37% | Draw 28% | Angers 35%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Angers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Concarneau at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concarneau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 70% | Angers 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 37% | Draw 28% | Angers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Concarneau 1.34 / Angers 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.987 / def 1.491 | Angers attack 0.787 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Angers xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Angers kick off?
Concarneau vs Angers kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Angers?
Concarneau 2 - 4 Angers.
Where is Concarneau vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Concarneau vs Angers part of?
Concarneau vs Angers is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 37% chance of winning, Angers a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Concarneau and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Angers?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 0W | Draws 0 | Angers 1W.
What form are Concarneau and Angers in?
Concarneau (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Angers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Concarneau's attack rating (0.99) and Angers's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
37%
2.70
28%
3.55
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Angers xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.30 for Angers, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Concarneau have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 9W 6D 14L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Angers's form line: 15W 5D 9L from 29 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Angers are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, Angers have gone 4W 3D 7L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Angers's season.
The Goals Picture
Concarneau are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.45 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Angers in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Angers in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Angers have gone 15W 5D 9L in their last 29 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Angers away?
Concarneau's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.07 PPG; Angers away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Concarneau or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Angers in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Concarneau and Angers runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Angers?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Angers have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Concarneau 2-4 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Angers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 57%, Angers 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Concarneau) and 29% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 29% of games; Angers in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Concarneau's recent matches and 36% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Concarneau vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Concarneau's recent games and 29% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Concarneau 2-4 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.34 xG and Angers 1.30 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Angers outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.99 / defence 1.49 against Angers attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 37% | Draw 28% | Angers 35%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 45%, Angers 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.