Concarneau 2-4 Angers – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Concarneau at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Concarneau face Angers.

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Match Analysis

Concarneau host Angers at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Concarneau's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Angers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Concarneau at 1.10 PPG versus Angers's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Concarneau, 1 for Angers and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Concarneau 0–2 Angers — a Angers win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Concarneau trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Angers trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 38% versus Angers 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 45% | Angers 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.34 xG and Angers 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.987 / defence 1.491 | Angers attack 0.787 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Angers's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.491 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Angers's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 29 games and Angers's last 29.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 37% | Draw 28% | Angers 35%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 2.70 | Draw 3.55 | Angers 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Concarneau at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concarneau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Concarneau's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 70% (last 10 home games) | Angers 40% (last 10 away games).

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