Clermont Foot 1-2 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Boulogne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Boulogne make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Boulogne have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Clermont Foot's 1.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Boulogne's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Boulogne in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Clermont Foot, 0 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.22 xG and Boulogne 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.716 / defence 1.160 | Boulogne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.118. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Clermont Foot games / 0 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 33%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Boulogne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Clermont Foot 1.22 / Boulogne 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.716 / def 1.160 | Boulogne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Boulogne xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Boulogne kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Boulogne kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Clermont Foot 1 - 2 Boulogne.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Boulogne part of?
Clermont Foot vs Boulogne is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 39% chance of winning, Boulogne a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Clermont Foot and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Boulogne in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Boulogne (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.72) and Boulogne's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.85x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.55
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.32
1.10
Boulogne xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.10 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Boulogne in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Boulogne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
1
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Boulogne?
From 5 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Boulogne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Boulogne?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Boulogne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Clermont Foot's games and 100% of Boulogne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Clermont Foot's matches and 100% of Boulogne's.
Do Clermont Foot and Boulogne tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.22 xG and Boulogne 1.10 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Boulogne outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.72 / defence 1.16 against Boulogne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 39% | Draw 28% | Boulogne 33%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 100%, Boulogne 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Boulogne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boulogne scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.