Caen 3-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Caen welcome Rodez to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Caen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Caen) versus 1.50 (Rodez). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Caen, 3 for Rodez and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Caen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Caen trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 47% versus Rodez 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 49% | Rodez 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.27 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.859 / defence 0.899 | Rodez attack 1.298 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.084. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Caen games / 51 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 37% | Draw 27% | Rodez 37%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 40% | Rodez 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 37% | Draw 27% | Rodez 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Caen 1.27 / Rodez 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.859 / def 0.899 | Rodez attack 1.298 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Rodez xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Rodez kick off?
Caen vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Rodez?
Caen 3 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Caen vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Rodez part of?
Caen vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 37% chance of winning, Rodez a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Caen and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Rodez?
Record (6 meetings): Caen 3W | Draws 0 | Rodez 3W.
What form are Caen and Rodez in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Caen's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.73
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Caen xG
Total xG
2.54
1.27
Rodez xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Caen and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Caen and 1.27 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Caen's recent record stands at 21W 9D 21L from 51 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 17L across 51 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.41 PPG, Rodez on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Caen have managed 14W 4D 8L from 26 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Caen are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.67 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Rodez in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 21W 9D 21L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Rodez have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Rodez away?
Caen's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.77 PPG; Rodez away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Caen or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jul 2021, when Caen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Caen's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
2
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Rodez 2-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 31%, Rodez 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Caen) and 58% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Caen's recent matches and 62% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Caen's recent games and 58% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Rodez tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rodez in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Rodez share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen and Rodez finished level at 3-3 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.27 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Rodez attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 37% | Draw 27% | Rodez 37%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 49%, Rodez 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.41 PPG, Rodez 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Caen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.