Boulogne 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Libération plays host to Boulogne versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 23 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boulogne (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Boulogne against 1.10 for Saint Etienne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Saint Etienne in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boulogne 67% and Saint Etienne 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Boulogne 67% | Saint Etienne 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | Saint Etienne attack 1.103 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.188. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Boulogne games / 2 Saint Etienne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Boulogne 40% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 36%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Saint Etienne 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boulogne as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 67% | Saint Etienne 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 40% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Boulogne 1.60 / Saint Etienne 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | Saint Etienne attack 1.103 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Boulogne vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Boulogne 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne part of?
Boulogne vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 40% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Boulogne and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and Saint Etienne in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.10x) against Boulogne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
40%
2.50
24%
4.20
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Boulogne xG
Total xG
3.11
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.51 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Boulogne against 1.33 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boulogne have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Boulogne or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Boulogne
0
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-1 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Boulogne, 67% for Saint Etienne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Boulogne and 100% for Saint Etienne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 33%; Boulogne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Boulogne's games and 67% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Boulogne's matches and 100% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Boulogne and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Boulogne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Boulogne 0-1 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.51 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Saint Etienne attack 1.10 / defence 1.31, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 40% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 36%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 67%, Saint Etienne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.