Bastia 0-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Annecy travel to Stade Armand Cesari to take on Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bastia — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Bastia's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Annecy have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Annecy are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Bastia have won 3, Annecy 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Bastia 0–1 Annecy — a Annecy win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Annecy trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 40% versus Annecy 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 30% | Annecy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.78 xG and Annecy 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.667 / defence 0.957 | Annecy attack 1.048 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.197. Bastia's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Bastia's last 57 games and Annecy's last 58.
Result probabilities: Bastia 24% | Draw 30% | Annecy 46%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 4.18 | Draw 3.33 | Annecy 2.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 24% | Draw 30% | Annecy 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Bastia 0.78 / Annecy 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.667 / def 0.957 | Annecy attack 1.048 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Annecy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Annecy xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Annecy kick off?
Bastia vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Bastia 0 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Bastia vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Annecy part of?
Bastia vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 24% chance of winning, Annecy a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bastia and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Bastia vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 57 games and Annecy's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
24%
4.18
30%
3.33
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.98
1.20
Annecy xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 16.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Bastia and 1.20 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 57 games, going 14W 24D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.47 PPG from 57 outings (23W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.16 PPG, Annecy on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 11W 11D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 6D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Annecy in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 14W 24D 19L in their last 57 games (1.16 PPG), while Annecy have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Annecy away?
Bastia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.57 PPG; Annecy away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Bastia or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Annecy in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won Bastia 3-0 Annecy.
Bastia's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 46%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bastia) and 46% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Annecy in 32%; Bastia have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bastia's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bastia's recent games and 46% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bastia's recent matches and 71% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bastia 0-2 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.78 xG and Annecy 1.20 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.67 / defence 0.96 against Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 24% | Draw 30% | Annecy 46%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Annecy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.16 PPG, Annecy 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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