Annecy 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Reims at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Annecy have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Reims in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 40% versus Reims 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 34% | Reims 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.81 xG and Reims 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.093 / defence 1.065 | Reims attack 0.837 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.102. Reims bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Annecy games / 4 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 57% | Draw 23% | Reims 20%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Reims 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Reims 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 57% | Draw 23% | Reims 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Annecy 1.81 / Reims 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.093 / def 1.065 | Reims attack 0.837 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Annecy (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Reims xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Reims kick off?
Annecy vs Reims kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Reims?
Annecy 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Annecy vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Annecy vs Reims part of?
Annecy vs Reims is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 57% chance of winning, Reims a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Annecy and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Reims in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Reims (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.34
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.79
0.98
Reims xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
30.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Annecy and 0.98 for Reims, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Reims?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 10D 13L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (10W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.45 PPG, Reims on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (3W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 0.97 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Reims in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Reims have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Reims away?
Annecy's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.78 PPG; Reims away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Annecy or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Reims in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Reims runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Reims 3-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 39%, Reims 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Annecy) and 44% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Reims in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Annecy's recent matches and 39% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 44% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Reims tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Reims in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.81 xG and Reims 0.98 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Annecy fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Reims attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 57% | Draw 23% | Reims 20%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 34%, Reims 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.45 PPG, Reims 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.