Annecy 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Annecy welcome Laval to Stade Gaston-Gérard. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Laval have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.10 PPG, Laval 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Annecy, 2 for Laval and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Laval in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Laval 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 38% | Laval 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.23 xG and Laval 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.978 / defence 1.121 | Laval attack 0.879 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.252. Data: 42 Annecy games / 42 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 36% | Draw 27% | Laval 36%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Laval 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 36% | Draw 27% | Laval 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Annecy 1.23 / Laval 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.978 / def 1.121 | Laval attack 0.879 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Laval xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Laval kick off?
Annecy vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Laval?
Annecy 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Annecy vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Annecy vs Laval part of?
Annecy vs Laval is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 36% chance of winning, Laval a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Annecy and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
Record (6 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 1 | Laval 2W.
What form are Annecy and Laval in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Laval (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.98x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.67
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.46
1.23
Laval xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Annecy and 1.23 for Laval, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 16W 11D 15L from 42 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 15L across 42 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.40 PPG, Laval on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 9W 6D 5L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 7W 7D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Laval in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Laval have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Laval away?
Annecy's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.65 PPG; Laval away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Annecy or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Laval in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Laval runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Laval specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Laval have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Laval?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 45%, Laval 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Annecy and 35% for Laval.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Laval in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Annecy's recent matches and 45% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 35% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Laval tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Laval in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Laval finished level at 0-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.23 xG and Laval 1.23 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Laval attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 36% | Draw 27% | Laval 36%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 38%, Laval 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Laval's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.40 PPG, Laval 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.