Amiens 1-3 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Laval (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Laval have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Amiens, 1.70 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Amiens have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Laval in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Amiens 1W, Laval 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Laval — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 42% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 36% | Laval 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.10 xG and Laval 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.980 / defence 0.804 | Laval attack 1.104 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Data: 53 Amiens games / 53 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 40% | Draw 31% | Laval 29%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Laval 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 30% | Laval 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 40% | Draw 31% | Laval 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Amiens 1.10 / Laval 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.980 / def 0.804 | Laval attack 1.104 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Amiens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Laval xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Laval kick off?
Amiens vs Laval kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Laval?
Amiens 1 - 3 Laval.
Where is Amiens vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Laval part of?
Amiens vs Laval is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 40% chance of winning, Laval a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Amiens and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
Record (4 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 2 | Laval 1W.
What form are Amiens and Laval in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Laval (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.98x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Laval's attack (1.10x) against Amiens's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.25
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.98
0.89
Laval xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Amiens and 0.89 for Laval, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 19W 19D 15L from 53 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 18L across 53 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Amiens against 1.45 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 10W 12D 4L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 12W 7D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.17 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Laval in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 19D 15L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Laval have gone 21W 14D 18L in their last 53 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.62 PPG; Laval away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Amiens or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Laval in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Amiens
3
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Laval have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Laval see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 46%, Laval 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Amiens and 38% for Laval.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Laval in 46%; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; Laval in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Amiens's recent matches and 31% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Amiens's recent games and 38% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Amiens 1-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.10 xG and Laval 0.89 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Laval outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Laval attack 1.10 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 40% | Draw 31% | Laval 29%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Laval 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Laval's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.43 PPG, Laval 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.