Amiens 3-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Amiens have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Amiens have won 0, Ajaccio 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 41% versus Ajaccio 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 35% | Ajaccio 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.61 xG and Ajaccio 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.042 / defence 0.762 | Ajaccio attack 0.636 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.110. Amiens's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Amiens games / 46 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 64% | Draw 24% | Ajaccio 12%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Ajaccio 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ajaccio's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
Ajaccio lead the H2H ledger, but Amiens carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Ajaccio 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 64% | Draw 24% | Ajaccio 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 33% | xG Amiens 1.61 / Ajaccio 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.042 / def 0.762 | Ajaccio attack 0.636 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Amiens (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Ajaccio xG
33%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Ajaccio kick off?
Amiens vs Ajaccio kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Amiens 3 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Amiens vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Ajaccio part of?
Amiens vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 64% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Amiens and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Ajaccio?
Record (4 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 2 | Ajaccio 2W.
What form are Amiens and Ajaccio in?
Amiens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.1%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.14
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.15
0.54
Ajaccio xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
58%
1.71
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
37%
2.68
2%
41.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.1 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Amiens and 0.54 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 17D 13L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 15W 12D 19L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.41 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (9W 10D 4L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 2W 5D 16L from 23 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.91 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 16W 17D 13L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 15W 12D 19L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Ajaccio away?
Amiens's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.61 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Amiens or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Amiens's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Amiens
2
Draws
3
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Ajaccio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Ajaccio 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Amiens 44% BTTS, Ajaccio 26%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Amiens and 35% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 30% of games; Ajaccio in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Amiens's recent matches and 26% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Amiens's recent games and 35% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Ajaccio 3-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.61 xG and Ajaccio 0.54 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.04 / defence 0.76 against Ajaccio attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 64% | Draw 24% | Ajaccio 12%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 35%, Ajaccio 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajaccio's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.41 PPG, Ajaccio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.