Strasbourg 1-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Strasbourg vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Nice travel to Stade de la Meinau to take on Strasbourg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Strasbourg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Nice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Strasbourg) versus 0.90 (Nice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Strasbourg, 1 for Nice and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Strasbourg in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Nice in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 66% versus Nice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 54% | Nice 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.21 xG and Nice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.006 / defence 0.964 | Nice attack 0.849 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.341. Data: 68 Strasbourg games / 68 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 38% | Draw 29% | Nice 33%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Nice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Strasbourg 60% | Nice 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 38% | Draw 29% | Nice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Strasbourg 1.21 / Nice 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.006 / def 0.964 | Nice attack 0.849 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nice xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Nice kick off?
Strasbourg vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Nice?
Strasbourg 1 - 3 Nice.
Where is Strasbourg vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Nice part of?
Strasbourg vs Nice is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 38% chance of winning, Nice a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Strasbourg and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Nice?
Record (5 meetings): Strasbourg 2W | Draws 2 | Nice 1W.
What form are Strasbourg and Nice in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Nice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (1.01) and Nice's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.41
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.31
1.10
Nice xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.10 for Nice, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 18W 22D 28L from 68 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 28W 22D 18L across 68 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 11W 10D 13L from 34 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 13W 11D 10L across 34 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.19 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Current Season
Nice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Nice in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 18W 22D 28L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Nice have gone 28W 22D 18L in their last 68 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.26 PPG; Nice away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Strasbourg and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Strasbourg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Strasbourg's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
4
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Nice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Strasbourg 3-1 Nice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 65%, Nice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Strasbourg) and 38% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Nice in 32%; Nice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Strasbourg's games and 50% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Strasbourg's recent games and 38% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Nice tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nice in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Strasbourg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Strasbourg 1-3 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.21 xG and Nice 1.10 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Nice attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 38% | Draw 29% | Nice 33%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 54%, Nice 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Nice's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.