Strasbourg 0-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Strasbourg face Monaco.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Meinau plays host to Strasbourg versus Monaco in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Strasbourg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Strasbourg at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monaco's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Monaco away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Strasbourg, 1.50 for Monaco — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Strasbourg's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Strasbourg's games and 80% of Monaco's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Monaco edge it 3 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Strasbourg 0–3 Monaco — a Monaco win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Strasbourg 69% and Monaco 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 56% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.38 xG and Monaco 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.895 / defence 1.271 | Monaco attack 1.481 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.209. Monaco have an above-average attack rating of 1.481, which lifts their away xG to 2.27. Strasbourg's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monaco's projected output up. Data: built from Strasbourg's last 62 games and Monaco's last 62.
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 22% | Draw 22% | Monaco 57%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 4.59 | Draw 4.63 | Monaco 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.38 / 2.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Strasbourg's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Strasbourg 70% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 22% | Draw 22% | Monaco 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Strasbourg 1.38 / Monaco 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.895 / def 1.271 | Monaco attack 1.481 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Monaco (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Monaco xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Strasbourg vs Monaco FAQs
What time does Strasbourg vs Monaco kick off?
Strasbourg vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Strasbourg 0 - 1 Monaco.
Where is Strasbourg vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Monaco part of?
Strasbourg vs Monaco is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 22% chance of winning, Monaco a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Strasbourg and Monaco will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Strasbourg vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Strasbourg's attack at 0.90x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.48x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from Strasbourg's last 62 games and Monaco's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
22%
4.59
22%
4.63
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
3.66
2.27
Monaco xG
4.59
22%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
10%
9.73
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
2%
44.68
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Strasbourg vs Monaco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Strasbourg and 2.27 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 15W 21D 26L from 62 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 31W 14D 17L across 62 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 9W 10D 12L from their last 31 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 16W 9D 6L across their last 31 away games, a 1.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Strasbourg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.84 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Monaco in 63%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Monaco
Blended
Strasbourg (Home) vs Monaco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Strasbourg
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Strasbourg vs Monaco Form FAQs
What form are Strasbourg and Monaco in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 15W 21D 26L in their last 62 games (1.06 PPG), while Monaco have gone 31W 14D 17L in their last 62 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.19 PPG; Monaco away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won Monaco 3-0 Strasbourg on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 2W 1D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Strasbourg
2
Draws
6
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Strasbourg vs Monaco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Monaco?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Strasbourg have won 2, Monaco have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Monaco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Strasbourg 1-1 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Strasbourg, 68% for Monaco — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Strasbourg and 68% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Strasbourg vs Monaco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Strasbourg and Monaco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Strasbourg's games and 68% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Strasbourg and Monaco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Strasbourg's matches and 68% of Monaco's.
Do Strasbourg and Monaco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 77% of Monaco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Strasbourg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Strasbourg 0-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.38 xG and Monaco 2.27 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Strasbourg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.90 / defence 1.27 against Monaco attack 1.48 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 22% | Draw 22% | Monaco 57%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 56%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Monaco's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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