Nice 1-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Riviera plays host to Nice versus Montpellier in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 8 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Montpellier (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Nice, 1.00 for Montpellier — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Nice have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Montpellier in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Montpellier half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 44% versus Montpellier 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 32% | Montpellier 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.54 xG and Montpellier 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.917 / defence 0.722 | Montpellier attack 0.898 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.197. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Nice's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Nice games / 62 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 54% | Draw 29% | Montpellier 17%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Montpellier 5.88. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 20% | Montpellier 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 54% | Draw 29% | Montpellier 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Nice 1.54 / Montpellier 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.917 / def 0.722 | Montpellier attack 0.898 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Nice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Montpellier xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Montpellier kick off?
Nice vs Montpellier kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Montpellier?
Nice 1 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Nice vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Montpellier part of?
Nice vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 54% chance of winning, Montpellier a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nice and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Montpellier?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 2 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Nice and Montpellier in?
Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Montpellier (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Montpellier's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.90x) against Nice's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.47
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Nice xG
Total xG
2.32
0.78
Montpellier xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
27.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Nice and 0.78 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Nice have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 26W 20D 16L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier's form line: 20W 14D 28L from 62 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Nice against 1.19 for Montpellier. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 11W 3D 16L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.48 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 26W 20D 16L in their last 62 games (1.58 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 20W 14D 28L in their last 62 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Montpellier away?
Nice's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.73 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Nice or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Montpellier in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nice won 6-1 on 11 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Montpellier — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Montpellier?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Montpellier have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Nice 2-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Montpellier?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 37%, Montpellier 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Nice) and 57% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nice have failed to score in 33% of games; Montpellier in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Nice's recent matches and 43% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Nice's recent games and 57% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Montpellier tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Montpellier defy the odds to beat Nice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Nice 1-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.54 xG and Montpellier 0.78 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.92 / defence 0.72 against Montpellier attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 54% | Draw 29% | Montpellier 17%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Montpellier win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 32%, Montpellier 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Montpellier's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.58 PPG, Montpellier 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.