Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain and Monaco meet at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Princes, Paris Saint Germain have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monaco have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Paris Saint Germain. A 1.30 PPG lead over Monaco (2.70 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Paris Saint Germain lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 62% and Monaco 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 66% | Monaco 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG and Monaco 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.532 / defence 0.627 | Monaco attack 0.986 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.176. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.532 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Paris Saint Germain's defence rating of 0.627 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Paris Saint Germain games / 58 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Draw 19% | Monaco 11%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Monaco 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 20% | Monaco 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Draw 19% | Monaco 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 46% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.13 / Monaco 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.532 / def 0.627 | Monaco attack 0.986 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Monaco xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 70% chance of winning, Monaco a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco?
Record (9 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 4W | Draws 2 | Monaco 3W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Monaco (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Paris Saint Germain's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.99x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.35
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.86
0.73
Monaco xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.35
19%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
12%
8.46
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
1%
74.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.73 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 44W 9D 5L from 58 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 18L across 58 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monaco heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 24W 3D 1L from 28 games — 2.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monaco's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.78 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Monaco in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Monaco in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 44W 9D 5L in their last 58 games (2.43 PPG), while Monaco have gone 29W 11D 18L in their last 58 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Monaco away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.68 PPG; Monaco away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Monaco in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Monaco have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 54%, Monaco 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Paris Saint Germain and 61% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 64% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 61% of Monaco's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Monaco tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Monaco in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Paris Saint Germain 1-3 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG and Monaco 0.73 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monaco outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.53 / defence 0.63 against Monaco attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 70% | Draw 19% | Monaco 11%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Monaco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 66%, Monaco 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.69. Form was overturned, with Monaco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.