Nice 0-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Toulouse meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 20:05 UTC.
Current Form
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Toulouse haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nice, 0.90 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Nice, 1 for Toulouse and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nice 68% and Toulouse 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 59% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.69 xG and Toulouse 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.125 / defence 0.891 | Toulouse attack 1.046 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.319. Data: 34 Nice games / 34 Toulouse games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 28%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Toulouse 3.57. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Nice 40% | Toulouse 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Nice 1.69 / Toulouse 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.125 / def 0.891 | Toulouse attack 1.046 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Toulouse xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Toulouse kick off?
Nice vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Toulouse?
Nice 0 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Nice vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Toulouse part of?
Nice vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 48% chance of winning, Toulouse a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nice and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Toulouse?
Record (6 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 4 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Nice and Toulouse in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Nice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.12x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.05x) against Nice's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.17
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Nice xG
Total xG
2.92
1.23
Toulouse xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
5%
19.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Nice and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Nice and 1.23 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nice come into this having played 34 games, going 17W 9D 8L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. Nice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. Toulouse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nice's home form reads 11W 4D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Nice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.29 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Pre-Season
Toulouse
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 17W 9D 8L in their last 34 games (1.76 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Toulouse away?
Nice's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.18 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 5-1 on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nice
4
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Toulouse have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Toulouse 5-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 59%, Toulouse 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Nice) and 53% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Toulouse in 35%; Toulouse in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Nice's recent matches and 41% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Nice's recent games and 53% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Nice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Nice 0-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.69 xG and Toulouse 1.23 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 48% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 28%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 59%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.