Nice 1-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nice at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Nantes travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nantes — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.60 PPG, Nantes 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Nice have won 2, Nantes 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Nantes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Nantes trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nice 68% and Nantes 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 60% | Nantes 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.74 xG and Nantes 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.072 / defence 0.896 | Nantes attack 0.870 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.269. Data: 37 Nice games / 37 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 55% | Draw 24% | Nantes 21%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Nantes 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Nice (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Nice 40% | Nantes 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 55% | Draw 24% | Nantes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Nice 1.74 / Nantes 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.072 / def 0.896 | Nantes attack 0.870 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Nice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Nantes xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Nantes kick off?
Nice vs Nantes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Nantes?
Nice 1 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Nice vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Nantes part of?
Nice vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 55% chance of winning, Nantes a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nice and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
Record (8 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 3 | Nantes 3W.
What form are Nice and Nantes in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Nantes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nice's attack rating (1.07) and Nantes's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.24
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Nice xG
Total xG
2.73
0.99
Nantes xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
4%
26.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Nice and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Nice and 0.99 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Nantes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 18W 9D 10L from 37 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 16L across 37 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 12W 3D 3L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Nice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nantes's away record stands at 3W 6D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Nantes in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 18W 9D 10L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while Nantes have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Nantes away?
Nice's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.17 PPG; Nantes away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nice
3
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 4, Nantes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nantes 1-4 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Nantes?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nice at 56%, Nantes at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nice) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Nice's games and 78% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nice's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Nantes tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nantes in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Nantes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Nantes 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.74 xG and Nantes 0.99 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Nantes attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 55% | Draw 24% | Nantes 21%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 60%, Nantes 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Nantes's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nice (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.