Nice 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nice face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Le Havre travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice in Ligue 1 (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nice — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nice at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Nice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Le Havre stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.20 PPG, Le Havre 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Nice have won 0, Le Havre 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Nice 1–3 Le Havre — a Le Havre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Le Havre trading profile (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 46% versus Le Havre 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 38% | Le Havre 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.984 / defence 0.820 | Le Havre attack 0.855 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.407. Data: built from Nice's last 69 games and Le Havre's last 32.
Result probabilities: Nice 52% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 22%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.91 | Draw 3.92 | Le Havre 4.54. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nice 40% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 52% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Nice 1.65 / Le Havre 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.984 / def 0.820 | Le Havre attack 0.855 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Nice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Le Havre xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nice vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Nice vs Le Havre kick off?
Nice vs Le Havre kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Nice 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Nice vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Le Havre part of?
Nice vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 52% chance of winning, Le Havre a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nice and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nice vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nice's last 69 games and Le Havre's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.92
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Nice xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Le Havre xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
23.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nice vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Nice and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Nice and 0.99 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 69 games, going 29W 22D 18L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.54 PPG from 69 outings (27W 25D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.58 PPG, Le Havre on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 15W 11D 8L across their last 34 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 34 away games (10W 17D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.14 scored and 0.88 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Le Havre in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
Nice (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nice
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Nice vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Nice and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 29W 22D 18L in their last 69 games (1.58 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 27W 25D 17L in their last 69 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Le Havre away?
Nice's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.65 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Nice or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Le Havre in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nice
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Nice vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Le Havre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Nice have won 3, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nice and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Le Havre?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 41%, Le Havre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Nice) and 38% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre in 35%; Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Le Havre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nice vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nice and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Nice's recent matches and 50% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nice and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nice's recent games and 38% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Le Havre 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 69/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 52% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 22%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 38%, Le Havre 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.58 PPG, Le Havre 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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