Le Havre 3-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Strasbourg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Strasbourg meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Strasbourg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Strasbourg's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Strasbourg are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Le Havre 0W, Strasbourg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Strasbourg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Strasbourg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 35% | Strasbourg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.78 xG and Strasbourg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.604 / defence 0.961 | Strasbourg attack 0.846 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.378. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.604 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Le Havre games / 69 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 25% | Draw 32% | Strasbourg 43%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Strasbourg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Strasbourg 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 25% | Draw 32% | Strasbourg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Le Havre 0.78 / Strasbourg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.604 / def 0.961 | Strasbourg attack 0.846 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Strasbourg xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Strasbourg kick off?
Le Havre vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Le Havre vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Strasbourg part of?
Le Havre vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 25% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Le Havre and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Strasbourg?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Strasbourg 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Strasbourg in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.60) and Strasbourg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (0.85x) against Le Havre's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
25%
4.03
32%
3.10
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.90
1.12
Strasbourg xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 16.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.12 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Le Havre's recent record stands at 26W 26D 17L from 69 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 18W 22D 29L across 69 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 16W 9D 9L from 34 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 7W 12D 15L across 34 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 67%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 26W 26D 17L in their last 69 games (1.51 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 18W 22D 29L in their last 69 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Strasbourg away?
Le Havre's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.68 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Strasbourg won 0-3 on 15 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Le Havre
0
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Strasbourg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Strasbourg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 32%, Strasbourg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Le Havre) and 53% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Le Havre's recent matches and 68% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Le Havre's recent games and 53% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Strasbourg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Strasbourg 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.78 xG and Strasbourg 1.12 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.60 / defence 0.96 against Strasbourg attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 25% | Draw 32% | Strasbourg 43%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, Strasbourg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Strasbourg's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.