Metz 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Le Havre at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Metz at 1.20 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Metz, 1 for Le Havre and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Metz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Metz in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Metz 59% and Le Havre 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 56% | Le Havre 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.22 xG and Le Havre 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.708 / defence 1.083 | Le Havre attack 0.951 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.199. Metz's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Metz games / 39 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 36% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 37%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Metz 70% | Le Havre 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 36% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Metz 1.22 / Le Havre 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.708 / def 1.083 | Le Havre attack 0.951 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Le Havre xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Le Havre kick off?
Metz vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Le Havre?
Metz 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Metz vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Le Havre part of?
Metz vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 36% chance of winning, Le Havre a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Metz and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Le Havre?
Record (4 meetings): Metz 1W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Metz and Le Havre in?
Metz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.71x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.66
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Metz xG
Total xG
2.45
1.24
Le Havre xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Metz and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Metz and 1.24 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Metz's recent record stands at 19W 11D 9L from 39 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 23L across 39 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Metz by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Metz have managed 11W 6D 2L from 19 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 7W 2D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.18 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 19W 11D 9L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 11W 5D 23L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Le Havre away?
Metz's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 2.05 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Metz's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Metz
4
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 53%, Le Havre 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Metz) and 53% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Metz's games and 63% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Metz vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Metz's recent games and 53% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Le Havre tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.22 xG and Le Havre 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Le Havre attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 36% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 37%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Le Havre 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.