Estac Troyes vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Estac Troyes welcome Lille to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 3 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 50% versus Lille 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 53% | Lille 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.77 xG and Lille 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.792 / defence 1.474 | Lille attack 1.050 / defence 0.653. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.298. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.653 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Estac Troyes games / 38 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 12% | Draw 22% | Lille 65%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 8.33 | Draw 4.55 | Lille 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Lille (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Lille 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 12% | Draw 22% | Lille 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Estac Troyes 0.77 / Lille 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.792 / def 1.474 | Lille attack 1.050 / def 0.653 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Lille (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Lille xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Lille kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Lille part of?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 12% chance of winning, Lille a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Estac Troyes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Record (5 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.79) and Lille's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
12%
8.01
22%
4.54
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.78
2.01
Lille xG
8.01
12%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
59.75
30%
3.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 2.01 for Lille, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 8D 10L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.87 PPG from 38 outings (21W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.79 PPG, Lille on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 13W 2D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lille have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (12W 1D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.55 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 20W 8D 10L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Lille have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Lille away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.28 PPG; Lille away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lille in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Lille runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Lille won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
From 5 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 56%, Lille 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estac Troyes) and 39% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lille in 50%; Lille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 22% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 39% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Lille tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lille in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.