Auxerre 0-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Monaco at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Monaco encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Monaco travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre in Ligue 1 (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Auxerre's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Monaco have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Monaco away from home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Feb 2023, ended Auxerre 2–3 Monaco — a Monaco win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Monaco in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 57% versus Monaco 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Monaco 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.15 xG and Monaco 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.942 / defence 1.071 | Monaco attack 1.153 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.361. Monaco bring a tight defence (rating 0.793, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Auxerre's projected output down. Data: built from Auxerre's last 3 games and Monaco's last 37.

Result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.93 | Draw 3.96 | Monaco 2.03. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 60% (last 10 away games).

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