Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Le Havre travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadium de Toulouse — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.30 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Toulouse have won 1, Le Havre 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 62% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 60% | Le Havre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.08 xG and Le Havre 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.798 / defence 1.036 | Le Havre attack 1.030 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.363. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Toulouse games / 37 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 45%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 2.22. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Le Havre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Toulouse 1.08 / Le Havre 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.798 / def 1.036 | Le Havre attack 1.030 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Le Havre xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Le Havre kick off?
Toulouse vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse 2 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Toulouse vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Le Havre part of?
Toulouse vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 27% chance of winning, Le Havre a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Toulouse and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
Record (4 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
27%
3.66
27%
3.64
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.53
1.46
Le Havre xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.46 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 17L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.22 PPG, Le Havre on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 3W 7D 8L from 18 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 9D 7L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Le Havre away?
Toulouse's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 0.89 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Toulouse
2
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Le Havre have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 67%, Le Havre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Toulouse) and 50% (Le Havre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 28% of games; Le Havre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 50% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Toulouse's matches and 50% of Le Havre's.
Do Toulouse and Le Havre tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Le Havre 2-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.08 xG and Le Havre 1.46 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Le Havre attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 27% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 45%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 60%, Le Havre 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.22 PPG, Le Havre 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.