Auxerre 0-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Le Havre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 0.80 PPG versus Le Havre's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 3 for Le Havre and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 55% versus Le Havre 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 60% | Le Havre 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.69 xG and Le Havre 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.834 / defence 0.998 | Le Havre attack 0.928 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.285. Data: 42 Auxerre games / 42 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 27%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Le Havre 3.70. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 49% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Auxerre 1.69 / Le Havre 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.834 / def 0.998 | Le Havre attack 0.928 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Le Havre xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Le Havre kick off?
Auxerre vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Auxerre 0 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Le Havre part of?
Auxerre vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 49% chance of winning, Le Havre a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Auxerre and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Record (4 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 3W.
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in?
Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.83x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.17
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.88
1.19
Le Havre xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.19 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 13W 10D 19L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 24L across 42 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.17 PPG, Le Havre on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Le Havre's away record stands at 7W 3D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.19 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 11W 7D 24L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Le Havre away?
Auxerre's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.57 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Le Havre have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 48%, Le Havre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Auxerre) and 52% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Auxerre's recent matches and 62% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Auxerre's recent games and 52% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Le Havre tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Auxerre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.69 xG and Le Havre 1.19 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 49% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 60%, Le Havre 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.17 PPG, Le Havre 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.