KuPS 4-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KuPS face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Vare Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vare Areena, KuPS have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vare Areena.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward KuPS. A 1.20 PPG lead over Mariehamn (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KuPS lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 46% versus Mariehamn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 46% | Mariehamn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.01 xG and Mariehamn 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.938 / defence 0.679 | Mariehamn attack 0.912 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.389. KuPS's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 KuPS games / 25 Mariehamn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Mariehamn 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 40% | Mariehamn 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG KuPS 1.01 / Mariehamn 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.938 / def 0.679 | Mariehamn attack 0.912 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: KuPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mariehamn xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
KuPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS 4 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Mariehamn part of?
KuPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 38% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both KuPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
Record (6 meetings): KuPS 3W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.94x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.91x) against KuPS's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.13
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
KuPS xG
Total xG
1.87
0.86
Mariehamn xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for KuPS and 0.86 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 10D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 0.94 PPG from 54 outings (13W 12D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 20W 1D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (6W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.02 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 10D 11L in their last 54 games (2.02 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Mariehamn away?
KuPS's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.18 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.82 PPG.
Have KuPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
KuPS
3
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 4, Mariehamn have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Mariehamn?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 43%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KuPS) and 61% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of KuPS's recent matches and 61% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of KuPS's matches and 61% of Mariehamn's.
Do KuPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Mariehamn 4-1 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.01 xG and Mariehamn 0.86 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.94 / defence 0.68 against Mariehamn attack 0.91 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 30%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.